Crypto-economists

There is a weird minority of online economists who seem to present, aesthetically at least, as paranoid conspiracy theorists. While at this stage I am just flagging this cultural group as potentially interesting for further research, some initial observations spring to mind:

- many are obsessed with geopolitics, and reading economics through this lens. Especially wrt the gold price and oil supply. This makes them more interested in economic history and less interested in technicals and data.

- several purport to operate quite successfully as traders, both within banks and other institutional settings, and sometimes as more dubious independents

- several have gotten in trouble for being frauds and scammers

- many resemble the manic street preacher predicting imminent apocalyptic collapses

- they are interested in naturalising the economy, particularly through the idea of cycles

I guess one might like to somehow generalise these figures in some way so as to read them as not the exception to the economy but the rule. Im sure there are other such readings for such a subculture, I guess as types of cult leaders, heretics, or heterodox figures.

One example I read was Martin Armstrong a convicted trader who claimed he could predict the entire economic cycle based on the number Pi. 

Interestingly, he argues that it is a Western conceit of teleological progress that denies the markets ability to function smoothly by recognising cycles in human nature. What is funny to me here is that there seems to be some weird reversals of what constitutes Western Modernity:

For some strange reason, cycle theory is feared by many professionals in the field of economics most, who are not even willing to look at the concept as if it were some black occult invention or a new version of voodoo economics. The incredible reality of this theoretical battle is man’s own nature, which presents enormous resistance to any change in his philosophy itself. The majority of people want security in knowing the future is somehow just the same. Forecasts of the economy are generally whatever trend is in motion they assume will stay in motion. Therein lies the reason for their demise.

In Asia cycles are part of the religion. Richard E. Nesbett wrote a good book entitled “The Geography of Thought, How Asians and Westerners Think Differently … and Why.” He attributed his work to a Chinese student who said: “You know, the difference between you and me is that I think the world is a circle, and you think it’s a line.” He goes on to quote him:

“The Chinese believe in constant change, but with things always moving back to some prior state. They pay attention to wide range of events; they search for relationships between things; and they think you can’t understand the part without understanding the whole. Westerners live in a simpler, more deterministic world; they focus on salient objects or people instead of the larger picture; and they think they can control events because they know the rules that govern the behavior of objects.”

Indeed, there is a substantial difference between the thinking process in Asia compare to the West. It is our goal to open your mind, and above all else, make you wide before your time. Understanding that the entire universe is constructed on a cyclical model where there are even 4 seasons, is the primary step in realizing that there is a whole new way of looking at the world, the economy, and life waiting to be discovered.

The very theory of Communism and Socialism are predicated upon trying to eliminate the business cycle. The single objective was to equalize wealth and eliminate the boom and bust cycle. These theories failed and resulted in justifying the killing of more people in history than any single idea accounting for both the Russian and Chinese Revolutions.

Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Paul Volcker even called the failure of the fixed exchange rate system and Keynesianism in eliminating the business cycle has proven these theories seriously flawed calling the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle.

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During the 13th century, the majority believed that the world was flat. In some cases, individuals who believed otherwise were put to death. Man had also mocked the idea of an automobile, flight and interplanetary travel. Of course all these things are now commonplace, accepted into the fold of modern society. But such a simple thing as understanding the business cycle remains unaffected by man’s advances in technology or his awareness of nature and physics.